Heiko Andreas von der Gracht (born 30 November 1978 in Aachen, West Germany) is a German academic and futurist specializing in foresight, technology management, and the Delphi method. He is a professor of foresight and digital transformation at the University for Continuing Education Krems and has been affiliated with KPMG. His academic background includes institutions such as Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Fontys University of Applied Sciences, University of Plymouth, and EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht.
Early life and education
Von der Gracht was born in Aachen on 30 November 1978. He was raised in Jülich and attended the Gymnasium Zitadelle Jülich, where he received his Abitur in 1998.[37] In 2003, he graduated with a degree in Industrial engineering from a dual degree program offered by the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, and Fontys University of Applied Sciences in Venlo.[39] The following year, Von der Gracht received a Master of Science in supply chain management from the University of Plymouth.[40] From 2005 to 2008, he was a research assistant at the EBS University of Business and Law, where he completed his doctorate in 2008 in futures studies.[41]
Professional life
In 2009, Von der Gracht founded the Centre for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management at the EBS University of Business and Law.[42,3] In 2013, he joined KPMG Germany as a researcher and head of a think tank for strategic foresight.[4] Von der Gracht received his habilitation in 2017 from the University of Erlangen–Nuremberg.[7] He previously held the Chair of Futures Studies at Steinbeis University, and since 2024, has served as Professor of Foresight and Digital Transformation at the University for Continuing Education Krems.[43] He also serves as a member of the Global Foresight Network at the World Economic Forum (WEF) and as an ambassador for its Global Collaboration Village (Forum Metaverse).[8,18]
Research
Based on the work of futurist Theodore J. Gordon in The Millennium Project, Von der Gracht developed the survey software 'Real-time Delphi'.[9] In 2011, he and Gordon presented a joint paper at the World Future Society (WFS) Annual Summit 2011, which summarized lessons learned from 40 real-time Delphi (RTD) studies conducted across their two platforms.[44]
In early 2018, Von der Gracht founded the international journal Futures & Foresight Science, of which he has been an associate editor since 2017, along with professors George Wright from the University of Strathclyde and George Cairns from Queensland University of Technology.[27] Since 2012, he has served on the advisory board of the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change, and has been an associate editor since 2017.[45]
Books and reports
Heiko von der Gracht's dissertation, "The future of logistics: scenarios for 2025", was published by Gabler in 2008 (ISBN 9783834910820). In 2015, Heiko von der Gracht, Michael Salcher, and Nikolaus Graf Kerssenbrock authored "The Energy Challenge: A Licence for Navigating the Future", published by REDLINE (ISBN 9783864148897). In 2018, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Angelika Huber-Strasser, Marcus Schüller, Nils Müller, Petra Lichtenau, and Hannah Zÿhlke published the study "Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots - Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040" via ResearchGate. In 2023, Sascha L. Schmidt, Heiko A. von der Gracht, Daniel Beiderbeck, and Gerrit Heidemann authored "AI, Blockchain, and immersive technologies: Metaversal business models of professional football clubs in 2030", released via ResearchGate.
Articles
Published articles on Delphi methods include "Consensus Measurement in Delphi Studies – Review and Implications for Future Quality Assurance" in Technological Forecasting & Social Change (Vol. 79, No. 8, 2012, p. 1525–1536, 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013). With Daniel Beiderbeck, Nicolas Frevel, Sascha L. Schmidt, and Vera M. Schweitzer, the article "Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements" was published in MethodsX (Vol. 8, 2021, p. 101401, 10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401). With Christoph Markmann, Alexander Spickermann, and Alexander Brem, "Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior" appeared in Futures & Foresight Science (2020;e56, 10.1002/ffo2.56). With Tobias Gnatzy, Johannes Warth, and Inga-Lena Darkow, "Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies" was published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change (Vol. 78, No. 9, 2011, p. 1681–1694, 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.006).
Regarding industry applications and organizational foresight, "Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025" was co-authored with Inga-Lena Darkow in the International Journal of Production Economics (Vol. 127, No. 1, 2010, p. 46–59, 10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.04.013). With Robert Vennemann and Inga-Lena Darkow, "Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management: A Portfolio – Approach in Evaluating Organizational Development" appeared in Futures – The journal of policy, planning and futures studies (Vol. 42, No. 4, 2010, p. 380–393, 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023). With Jay E. Gary, "The Future of the Foresight Professionals: Results from a Delphi Study" was published in Futures – The journal of policy, planning and futures studies (Vol. 71, 2015, p. 132–145, 10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005). With Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff, Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski, and Theodore J. Gordon, "Foresight Support Systems: The future role of ICT for foresight" was published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change (Vol. 97, 2015, p. 1–6, 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.010).
External links
External links include the identifier 135540798 and the ResearchGate website of Heiko Von der Gracht.